Guidelines for accelerated loan payoffs

If you've been frustrated with the faltering markets lately, as have most Americans, you've probably been discouraged from investing your disposable income into the stock market. That could very well be the correct choice for you and your family, depending on your financial plans and tolerance for risk. But if you're not investing in the stock market, what are you doing with all that money? Are you putting it in a savings account? Or a CD? Or are you paying down debt?

My personal financial plan calls on paying down my debt during the economic downturn. The markets have been unpredictable (and by unpredictable, I mean they're going straight down) and the amount of debt that my wife and I have will take a relatively short amount of time to pay off. We're hoping that when we're out of debt in a couple of years (excepting our mortgage), the market will be trending upward and we'll have a larger portion of our income to regularly invest, given the fact that we'll have no regular payments for our auto or student loans.

If you're going to start paying down debt in lieu of investing, consider the following three guidelines to help you prioritize where your money is being sent:

1. Pay off the loans with the highest interest rate first (as long as they're not tax advantaged)
Dave Ramsey will tell you to pay off your loan with the smallest amount first instead of the one with the highest interest rate. This adds a layer of subjectivity to your personal finance that, while making you "feel good" about paying down your debt, will cost you money. In a recent post, I discuss the financial disadvantages his plan.

Non-tax-advantaged loans that fall into this category include credit card debt, personal loans, and auto loans. Look for your highest interest rate, and start sending whatever extra money that you can to pay it off.

2. Pay off loans incrementally -- don't save your money and pay it off in one fell swoop
I'll give a personal example here. Though I still have a couple of years' worth of payments remaining on my auto loan, I'm hoping to have it paid off by January. While maintaining my "emergency fund" in my checking account, and have been placing my monthly disposable income into an "auto loan payoff fund" that lives in a savings account. Last I checked, I had a few thousand dollars in there.

I had originally planned to keep making my regular monthly payments and continue saving money in the payoff account until I had enough money to pay off the car. But then I crunched a few numbers and found the flaw in my plan. Here's how it goes:

Whenever you make a regular monthly payment on a loan, a portion of that payment goes toward the principal balance and another portion goes toward interest. Those percentages are determined by a couple of different factors:
1) the time left on the loan (the less time left, the higher the percent that goes toward principal) and
2) the amount of remaining principal balance (the lower the balance, the higher the percent that goes toward principal).

So if my monthly payment is $500, maybe $400 of that goes toward principal and the other $100 goes toward interest. Next month, after the principal balance has been slightly reduced, the payment distribution may be $405/95, and so on. But if I have a few thousand dollars in a savings account that's just waiting to be used to pay off the loan, I am better off sending that money as a principal-only payment immediately. If I reduce my principal by, let's say, $5,000, a much higher percentage of my regular monthly payment will go toward principal. If you're paying off a loan on an accelerated schedule, sending the extra money as soon as you have it instead of saving it and sending one big fat check at the end may save you several hundred dollars over the life of the loan.

3) After non-tax-advantaged loans are repaid, evaluate the tax benefits of other loans before repaying them.
Once your credit cards, personal loans, and auto loans are paid off, hopefully all you'll have left is a mortgage and maybe a student loan. At this time, before deciding to accelerate the payoff on these loans, you should reevaluate the stock market. Has it picked up yet? If you're still not feeling warm and fuzzy, do some math and figure out how much your tax-advantaged debt is really costing you.

If your mortgage has a 5% interest rate, remember that depending on your tax bracket, you'll get maybe 25 or 28 percent of that interest back in your tax refund. So think of the effective cost of the debt to be 3.75% (5%, minus 25% of the 5). Your mortgage is a very long-term loan, and you won't see the benefits of paying it down early for a very long time. Paying it off early won't reduce your monthly payments. Sure, it will be paid off sooner, but even if you double your monthly mortgage payment every month until it is paid off, it will take almost 10 years to pay off a 30-year mortgage. If the effective interest rate on your mortgage (the interest rate less the tax benefit) is only slightly higher than the amount you could earn in a CD or a savings account, I would rather see you hold onto that money just in case you need it.

With all loans, especially those that are tax-advantaged, the lower the interest rate, the less sense it makes to accelerate your payoff. My friend Quang's student loan has a 3% interest rate. I wouldn't pay that off early for the world. But the rate on one of my wife's student loans is 7.9%. I can promise you that as soon as my car is paid off, the next thing to go will be that sucker.

Non-tax advantaged debt is nobody's friend. If you're not satisfied with the performance of your investment portfolio, it could be a wise decision to pay it off early in lieu of investing. But if your only debts are mortgages or student loans, think twice before you start sending extra cash toward the principal. True, you're saving yourself money in the long run, but remember that you're also reducing your tax writeoff and parting with that money for a long, long time. And keep in mind: even if you're using the standard deduction (not itemizing), your student loan interest is still tax deductible!

Debunking Dave Ramsey's Snowball Plan for Debt Reduction

A reader recently commented on my site,  suggesting that I check out Dave Ramsey's website and learn about some of his suggestions for getting out of debt.  This morning, I performed a detailed analysis of his debt reduction plan which he calls the "Snowball Plan."

First accumulate $1,000 cash as an emergency fund. Then begin intensely getting rid of all debt (except the house) using my debt snowball plan. List your debts in order with the smallest payoff or balance first. Do not be concerned with interest rates or terms unless two debts have similar payoffs, then list the higher interest rate debt first. Paying the little debts off first gives you quick feedback, and you are more likely to stay with the plan.

I should mention that Mr. Ramsey is a faith-based financial advisor and regularly takes into account more than just the numbers.  When speaking on personal finace, he focuses on the "personal" just as much as the "finance."  Though his system has proven to be effective for some, it is not my style.

He urges his readers and listeners to build momentum when reducing their debt and try to feel a sense of accomplishment.  But let me warn you: those senses of momentum and accomplishment may not come cheaply.  Essentially, by "feeling good" about paying down debt, you risk taking more time to do it and thus wasting more of your money on interest payments.

Consider this analysis:

Let's say you have two loans: A student loan for $25,000 and an auto loan for $10,000.  The student loan has an interest rate of 8% and regular payments of $227 for 200 months.  The auto loan has an interest rate of 6% and regular monthly payments of $304 for 36 months.  In addition to your regular payments, let's say you have $100/month extra that you can apply to whichever loan you're currently paying and that once it is paid off, you will take the normal payments of it and apply them toward the other loan until it is paid off.  In this scenario, with minimum payments of $227 and $304 and extra cash of $100, you will be paying $631 per month until both loans are paid off.

Because the length of the student loan is much longer than the auto loan, even if you decide to apply the extra money to the student loan first, by the time it's paid off the auto loan will have been long-since paid off.  The total you will have spent on interest over the life of the two loans will be $10,603.  If you had decided to pay off the smaller auto loan first and then send all of your debt-reducing cash to the student loan, you would have saved $2,262 in interest.  In this case, Dave Ramsey's strategy works.

But let's look at another scenario.

Let's say you marry your college sweetheart.  After the wedding, you decide to merge your individual finances and adapt a joint financial strategy that works for both of you.  Let's say that you have a student loan of $30,000 at 9% for ten years.  Your spouse has less: only $15,000 at 6% for the same 10 years.  Like the previous example, you can pay an extra $100 each month toward the principal on whichever loan you're paying down first.

The terms (length) of the two loans are the same, one is twice the size of the other, and the smaller loan carries a smaller interest rate.  Dave Ramsey would tell you to pay off the smaller $15,000 loan first.  By doing that, you're costing yourself $1,534 in unnecessary interest.  If the difference in the interest rates was greater, this wasted amount would be even larger.  Let's say your loan carried 10% interest and your spouse's carried 5%.  You would then waste $2,058 in additional interest by paying the smaller loan first.

Let's tweak the numbers one more time: Assuming the same rates and balances,  a change in terms so that the smaller loan lasted for 15 years instead of ten would result in a waste of $2,656 in unnecessary interest payments; just because you listened to Mr. Ramsey.

As you can see, there is not a definitive high-level strategy that can accurately determine the order in which you should pay off your loans.  Mr. Ramsey tries to justify his financially flawed plan by adding emotion and human perception to the equation.  Here is my solution:  When considering the order in which you pay off your loans, crunch the numbers.  Once you prove which will save you the most money, set up a regular payment with your bank and forget about it.  You should find satisfaction in the fact that you're paying off your loans in the smartest, cheapest way possible.  Maybe it means paying off the smaller loan and maybe it doesn't.